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Neferti
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Neferti

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PostSubject: The Weather!   The Weather! EmptyWed 16 Jan 2019, 7:58 am

Record-breaking conditions as extreme heatwave conditions

There will be “no reprieve” from an unprecedented heatwave which in some areas is the most intense burst of heat for eight years.

Forecasters have cautioned that there is “no reprieve” from the heatwave until at least the weekend as already record-breaking temperatures reach their peak.

Parts of Sydney will swelter into the 40s on Wednesday, just a precursor of a 45C high to come on Friday. Canberra could reach 41C today while 45C is likely in regional cities across New South Wales. On Tuesday, Hay, in the west of the state, almost touched 48C.

An extreme heatwave that poses a risk to even fit and healthy people is now in full swing in eastern parts of the state. The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has warned of “oppressive conditions”.

Yes, it’s summer and heat is no stranger this time of year — but this is something else.

The NSW Health Department has said it’s now the worst heat the state has experienced for a prolonged period since 2011, when a heatwave increased the mortality rate by 13 per cent and hospital admissions by 14 per cent.

Adelaide could peak at 40C today, but Melbourne and Tasmania will see some relief form the roasting conditions aided by sea breezes.

But you don’t have to go far inland to see the mercury rise. Bendigo, Victoria could top out at 43C today.

Perth is fine and summery today but come the weekend it too will touch 40C.

BOM meteorologist Diana Eadie said much of the country remained stuck in heatwave mode.

“Temperatures are expected to climb into the low to high 40s — that’s eight to 12 degrees above average.

“We’ve already seen some January maximum temperature records fall and we’re likely to see many more before this event is over,” she said.

“The humidity will lead to really oppressive conditions.”

Authorities across the southeast have urged people to hydrate, check on vulnerable friends, family and neighbours and not to leave children or pets in hot cars.

In South Australia, the government has declared a Code Red heat emergency for Wednesday.

This triggers extra funding so services for the homeless can be extended while a special phone line will also operate providing regular checks on the elderly and others at risk from the extreme conditions.

WHY IT’S LASTING SO LONG

Sky News Weather channel meteorologist Rob Sharpe explained why this heatwave had been so intense.

“High pressure is sitting over the Tasman Sea. High pressure spins anticlockwise so that’s guiding heat from northern and central Australia into southeastern Australia.”

But with nothing to shake that system up for the next few days, the heat has just kept on building.

On Tuesday, the BOM remarked: “The heat will build up through this week and people are warned they should not expect a reprieve until at least the weekend in many areas.”

AROUND THE MAJOR CENTRES

Looking around the areas most affected, Sydney will see 31C on Wednesday rising to 34C on Friday. But in Penrith, in the west, that rise is from 41C to 45C, up to 11 degrees more sweltering.

Across the city, night time lows will be a sweaty 22C.

In Canberra, the mercury will likely pass the 40C mark every day until Friday with night time lows of 20C. Albury will see four consecutive days above 40C with Wednesday on 45C.

Adelaide is on 40C today and then 37C on Thursday.

The weather at the Open in Melbourne is relatively mild — 26C and then 33C on Thursday. Nights are still hot though at around 22C.

Hobart will see 23C today rising to 26C on Thursday.

In Queensland, Brisbane will continue on a run of sunny days and 33C.

Perth will get to 29C today, then 32C on Friday and a scorching 40C on Sunday. It will be 34C and possible storms in Darwin.

COLD CHANGE DUE … EVENTUALLY

An end to the huge highs is in sight which will bring blessed relief.

“The heat is remaining stagnant through the southeast until we have this cool change on Friday and Saturday,” Ms Eadie said.

That trough should pass through Adelaide on Friday, Melbourne late the same day and Canberra and Sydney on Saturday.

That should shave five to eight degrees off temperatures — far more in western Sydney and regional cities. Penrith will go from 45C on Friday to 29C on Sunday.

However, the cold front brings its own risks, she said.

“Dry thunderstorms are a particular concern as lightning with no rain may ignite new fires.”

All that wind may bring the mercury down but, it can also stoke those flames. As such Friday and Saturday will be peak fire danger times.
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Neferti
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Neferti

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PostSubject: Re: The Weather!   The Weather! EmptyWed 16 Jan 2019, 8:01 am

It is HOT here in Canberra. It got to 40C yesterday and looks like it will be much the same today. It was already 25C when I got up at 6 am. Luckily I have a Daikin split system, so the a/c is running with nice cold air.

Looking forward to Autumn!
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Veritas

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PostSubject: Re: The Weather!   The Weather! EmptyWed 16 Jan 2019, 9:54 am

Ah yes prepare for the electricity bills...
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Neferti
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PostSubject: Re: The Weather!   The Weather! EmptyWed 16 Jan 2019, 6:13 pm

Veritas wrote:
Ah yes prepare for the electricity bills...

Canberra is very generous with their "discounts" on Rates and Electricity Bills. So they should be.

Summer is usually not as hot for as long, but Winter ........ heating on 24/7 for months ....
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Bobby2

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PostSubject: Re: The Weather!   The Weather! EmptyWed 16 Jan 2019, 8:56 pm

Neferti wrote:
Veritas wrote:
Ah yes prepare for the electricity bills...

Canberra is very generous with their "discounts" on Rates and Electricity Bills. So they should be.

Summer is usually not as hot for as long, but Winter ........ heating on 24/7 for months ....


Canberra is high in altitude.
That causes much more extreme conditions
and definitely freezing winters.
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Veritas

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PostSubject: Re: The Weather!   The Weather! EmptyThu 17 Jan 2019, 7:38 am

Summer here... its hot.
Winter O/s they are freezing.
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Veritas

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PostSubject: Re: The Weather!   The Weather! EmptyThu 17 Jan 2019, 8:36 am

Quote :
Climate debate: 97pc of scientists agree on nothing
IAN PLIMER
January 17, 2019

It is often claimed that 97 per cent of scientists conclude that humans are causing global warming. Is that really true? No. It is a zombie statistic.

In the scientific circles I mix in, there is an overwhelming scepticism about human-induced climate change. Many of my colleagues claim that the mantra of human-induced global warming is the biggest scientific fraud of all time and future generations will pay dearly.

If 97 per cent of scientists agree that there is human-induced climate change, you’d think they would be busting a gut to vanquish climate sceptics in public debates. Instead, many scientists and activists are expressing confected outrage at the possibility of public debates because the science is settled. After all, 97 per cent of scientists agree that human emissions drive global warming and there is no need for further discussion.

In my 50-year scientific career, I have never seen a hypothesis where 97 per cent of scientists agree. At any scientific conference there are collections of argumentative sods who don’t agree about anything, argue about data, how data was collected and the conclusions derived from data. Scepticism underpins all science, science is underpinned by repeatable validated evidence and scientific conclusions are not based on a show of hands, consensus, politics or feelings. Scientists, just like lawyers, bankers, unionists, politicians and those in all other fields, can make no claim to being honest or honourable, and various warring cliques of scientists have their leaders, followers, outsiders and enemies. Scientists differ from many in the community because they are allegedly trained to be independent. Unless, of course, whacking big research grants for climate “science” are waved in front of them.

The 97 per cent figure derives from a survey sent to 10,257 people with a self-interest in human-induced global warming who published “science” supported by taxpayer-funded research grants. Replies from 3146 respondents were whittled down to 77 self-appointed climate “scientists” of whom 75 were judged to agree that human-induced warming was taking place. The 97 per cent figure derives from a tribe with only 75 members. What were the criteria for rejecting 3069 respondents? There was no mention that 75 out of 3146 is 2.38 per cent. We did not hear that 2.38 per cent of climate scientists with a self-interest agreed that humans have played a significant role in changing climate and that they are recipients of some of the billions spent annually on climate research.

Another recent paper on the scientific consensus of human-induced climate change was a howler. Such papers can be published only in the sociology or environmental literature.

The paper claimed that published scientific papers showed there was a 97.1 per cent consensus that man had caused at least half of the 0.7C global warming since 1950.

How was this 97.1 per cent figure determined? By “inspection” of 11,944 published papers. Inspection is not rigorous scholarship. There was no critical reading and understanding derived from reading 11,944 papers. This was not possible as the study started in March 2012 and was published in mid-2013, hence only a cursory inspection was possible. What was inspected? By whom?

The methodology section of the publication gives the game away. “This letter was conceived as a ‘citizen science’ project by volunteers contributing to the Skeptical Science website (www.skepticalscience.com). In March 2012, we searched the Institute for Scientific Information Web of Science for papers published from 1991-2011 using topic searches for ‘global warming’ or ‘global climate change’.”

This translates as: This study was a biased compilation of opinions from non-scientific, politically motivated volunteer activists who used a search engine for key words in 11,944 scientific papers, were unable to understand the scientific context of the use of “global warming” and “global climate change”, who rebadged themselves as “citizen scientists” to hide their activism and ignorance, who did not read the complete papers and were unable to evaluate critically the diversity of science published therein.

The conclusions were predictable because the methodology was not dispassionate and involved decisions by those who were not independent.

As part of a scathing critical analysis of this paper by real scientists, the original 11,944 papers were read and the readers came to a diametrically opposite conclusion. Of the 11,944 papers, only 41 explicitly stated that humans caused most of the warming since 1950 (0.3 per cent). Of the 11,944 climate “science” papers, 99.7 per cent did not say that carbon dioxide caused most of the global warming since 1950. It was less than 1 per cent and not one paper endorsed a man-made global warming catastrophe.

Political policy and environmental activism rely on this fraudulent 97 per cent consensus paid for by the taxpayer to rob the taxpayer further with subsidies for bird-and-bat-chomping wind turbines, polluting solar panels and handouts to those with sticky fingers in the international climate industry. It’s this alleged 97 per cent consensus that has changed our electricity from cheap and reliable to expensive and unreliable.

Activists with no skin in the game are setting the scene for economic suicide.

Time for yellow shirts to shirt-front politicians about their uncritical acceptance of a fraud that has already cost the community hundreds of billions of dollars.

Emeritus professor Ian Plimer’s latest book, The Climate Change Delusion and the Great Electricity Ripoff, is published by Connor Court.
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Neferti
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PostSubject: Re: The Weather!   The Weather! EmptyThu 17 Jan 2019, 4:16 pm

Yes, I have seen Ian Plimer speak on Sky's "Outsiders" program. I agree with what he says.

It is still bloody H.O.T. in Canberra today. Didn't get to 41 at my place, got to 38 which is bad enough. I woke several times last night and it was still 24 ... in the middle of the night! Then dropped down to about 20 at 6 am when I got up.

Yes, Canberra has HOT, Dry, Summers but often the "heat" doesn't come until end-January/February. February is usually our hottest month! This year it started before 1 December (Summer) and, with the exception of a couple of days when the temperature dropped to about 22 during the day and it actually "rained" (for 5 minutes), this bloody heat has been constant! I am feeling quite nauseous, which I presume is the heat and not something else. Oh, currently it is 36 and the humidity is 28%.
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Neferti
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PostSubject: Re: The Weather!   The Weather! EmptyFri 18 Jan 2019, 5:01 pm

Another extremely HOT day! Apparently it got to 40C ... currently 38C but the humidity is only 20% ....  I've had "alerts" on my phone that there is "rain" about .... at the moment it is quite windy.  Rain would be very welcome!

Thankfully, I have air conditioning ... stuff the cost.

Last night I woke at about 2 am and it was still 25C .....
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Veritas

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PostSubject: Re: The Weather!   The Weather! EmptySat 19 Jan 2019, 3:52 pm

bjorn lomborg wrote a good piece in The Australian today re the climate liars being at it again...
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Neferti
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PostSubject: Re: The Weather!   The Weather! EmptySat 19 Jan 2019, 5:45 pm

It is SUMMER. We expect it to be hot.  However, I must say that I am finding it hotter for longer this Summer and February is usually the hottest month in Canberra and that hasn't arrived, yet. Ah well. Winter will be here before you know it and we will be whinging about the cold. Very Happy
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Bobby2

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PostSubject: Re: The Weather!   The Weather! EmptyThu 24 Jan 2019, 1:25 pm

Neferti wrote:
It is SUMMER. We expect it to be hot.  However, I must say that I am finding it hotter for longer this Summer and February is usually the hottest month in Canberra and that hasn't arrived, yet. Ah well. Winter will be here before you know it and we will be whinging about the cold. Very Happy

It's only another month or so of summer.
Luckily I have an aircon where I'm living and at work.
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PostSubject: Re: The Weather!   The Weather! EmptyThu 24 Jan 2019, 4:14 pm

A little cooler last night but back to mid 30s today. I have air conditioning at home, so don't venture very far on these extremely hot days!
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PostSubject: Re: The Weather!   The Weather! EmptyThu 24 Jan 2019, 10:12 pm

Neferti wrote:
A little cooler last night but back to mid 30s today.  I have air conditioning at home, so don't venture very far on these extremely hot days!

Melbourne and Geelong are having a terrible heat wave.

44 tomorrow in Melbourne.
http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/forecasts/melbourne.shtml


42 tomorrow in Geelong.
http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/forecasts/geelong.shtml
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PostSubject: Re: The Weather!   The Weather! EmptySun 27 Jan 2019, 8:23 am

We are still having a heatwave here! I have been in Canberra since January 1981 and usually, Summer means hot and dry but with temperatures in the mid 30s for about 3 days then it drops down to mid 20s for a week, then another few days at 35+.

Not so this Summer. EVERY DAY has been in the mid to high 30s and yesterday it was 40C.  Not only that, it doesn't cool down very much at night either.  Usually it drops down to mid to high teens at night, not this Summer ... still 25C over night!  Unbearable!

I can only look forward to March and Autumn and cool days and cold nights when you can sleep without tossing and turning.

Ah well.
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PostSubject: Re: The Weather!   The Weather! EmptyTue 29 Jan 2019, 5:15 pm

STILL hot here in Canberra ... I can't stand it!  Fortunately, I have air conditioning (Daikin split system) which I have been leaving on 24/7. Stuff the cost.  Cool

I had an appointment with the GP today and I almost suffocated walking from the house to the car .... just as well his surgery was air conditioned!
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Bobby2

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PostSubject: Re: The Weather!   The Weather! EmptyTue 29 Jan 2019, 5:53 pm

Neferti wrote:
STILL hot here in Canberra ... I can't stand it!  Fortunately, I have air conditioning (Daikin split system) which I have been leaving on 24/7. Stuff the cost.  Cool

I had an appointment with the GP today and I almost suffocated walking from the house to the car .... just as well his surgery was air conditioned!

Well it was hot in Geelong today - 37 degrees where I was working but
now it's cooled right down to 25.
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Veritas

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PostSubject: Re: The Weather!   The Weather! EmptyWed 30 Jan 2019, 8:44 am

-28 in Chicago....
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Neferti
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PostSubject: Re: The Weather!   The Weather! EmptyWed 30 Jan 2019, 9:54 am

Veritas wrote:
-28 in Chicago....

Yes.  I got an email this morning from a pal in Minnesota, he said it was -33C there! I was having a whinge about how hot it was here. Very Happy Ah well!
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PostSubject: Re: The Weather!   The Weather! EmptyWed 30 Jan 2019, 6:33 pm

Neferti wrote:
Veritas wrote:
-28 in Chicago....

Yes.  I got an email this morning from a pal in Minnesota, he said it was -33C there! I was having a whinge about how hot it was here. Very Happy Ah well!

I put it on the Ice Age thread.
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PostSubject: Re: The Weather!   The Weather! EmptyFri 01 Feb 2019, 10:50 am

Finally, a cool change here.  Currently 18C with a "high" of 21C ... just what the doctor ordered. positive
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