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 What's at stake for Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten in the by-elections?

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Neferti
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Neferti

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Join date : 2018-07-15

What's at stake for Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten in the by-elections? Empty
PostSubject: What's at stake for Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten in the by-elections?   What's at stake for Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten in the by-elections? EmptyFri 27 Jul 2018, 8:04 am

This Saturday, hundreds of thousands of people across Australia will head to the ballot box — but not to decide who should run their federal, state, or even local government.

Five separate by-elections across Queensland, Tasmania, South Australia and Western Australia have been called for the same day, most of which were triggered by a constitutional conundrum.

If you need a quick refresher, the seats in question are:

   Longman just north of Brisbane in Queensland
   Braddon in north-west Tasmania
   Mayo nestled into in the Adelaide Hills in SA
   Perth, which takes in the WA capital city
   Fremantle also in WA

Labor's Susan Lamb (Longman), Justine Keay (Braddon) and Josh Wilson (Fremantle) as well as Centre Alliance MP Rebekha Sharkie (Mayo) were all forced to resign after it emerged their dual citizenship made them ineligible to sit in the parliament.

The Perth by-election is the only poll not caused by dual citizenship, but was triggered after Labor's Tim Hammond resigned for family reasons.

Four out of five members re-contesting their seats might not seem like a big deal, but this is what's at stake for the Federal Government and its adversaries.

What is the worst that could happen for the Government?

One scenario is that nearly 500,000 people will vote and no seats will change.

Before the by-elections were called, Labor had four seats and Centre Alliance's Rebekha Sharkie had one.

If the ALP hangs on to all four and Ms Sharkie is re-elected, it would be business as usual for the Parliament — with the Coalition holding its one-seat majority.

Failing to win any of the three it has targeted would be a blow for the Coalition which hoped to grab at least one of the two marginal seats of Longman and Braddon back from Labor.

If, as expected, Ms Sharkie holds Mayo, the crossbencher would consolidate her position in the seat that she is the only non-Liberal to ever win.

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull insists the federal election will be next year. A by-election result where the Coalition doesn't win any seats would all but confirm that timing.
What about for Labor?

The ALP could lose both marginal seats — Braddon and Longman.

That might trigger pot-shots at Bill Shorten's leadership.

Voters in Longman and Braddon have switched between parties often in the last decade.

Australian political history would be made if one or both changed tomorrow.

A federal opposition has only lost a seat to a government once: in the Kalgoorlie by-election of 1920.

Mr Shorten's position and Labor's approach would both be scrutinised if Labor loses both seats.

Anthony Albanese has been campaigning prominently in the five by-elections but insists his goal is to be a minister in a Shorten government.

Winning back two seats from Labor would be enough for the Prime Minister to at least think about calling an election for this year.

The ALP will hold the seats of Perth and Fremantle in WA where the Liberals are not standing candidates. Labor won't win Mayo in the Adelaide Hills.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-27/by-election-whats-at-stake-for-malcolm-turnbull-bill-shorten/9981546
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Veritas

Veritas

Posts : 627
Join date : 2018-07-17

What's at stake for Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten in the by-elections? Empty
PostSubject: Re: What's at stake for Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten in the by-elections?   What's at stake for Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten in the by-elections? EmptyFri 27 Jul 2018, 11:08 am

I doubt anything is at stake for either of them. Albanese doesn't seem interested in leading Labor unless Bill fails at an election and no one in the Libs seem lined up to replace Malcolm.
I think whoever loses the next election will be replaced and that these elections will have little or no bearing on their positions.
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