AS WIDER and wider cracks open in the Western alliance, European leaders fear a Russian attack — and this is where it would likely happen.
FOR much of eastern Europe, Russia is the sleeping beast on the doorstep. But with Donald Trump in the White House, some European nations fear the traditional power structures that kept the beast at bay can no longer be relied upon.
Since its conception in 1949, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, or NATO, has been the cornerstone of Europe’s security.
The treaty binds the United States, Canada, United Kingdom and much of Europe together in a military defence pact, effectively pitting the superior nuclear might of the US against the world's second biggest nuclear power, Russia.
But as the Western alliance shows signs of cracking, some European countries are nervously eyeing Russia and scrambling for a back-up plan.
Poland is so worried that it recently offered the US $2.7 billion to permanently station troops in the country.
Dr Jean Renouf, lecturer in Politics and International Relations at Southern Cross University, said European leaders were growing increasingly fearful of a potential Russian attack on their soil.
“We are currently witnessing an escalation of tensions in the region,” he told news.com.au. “It’s not that war in Europe is going to happen but we should highlight the fact that another war in Europe could happen if we’re not cautious.”
Mr Trump’s extraordinary performance at the Helsinki summit this week where he met with Russian president Vladimir Putin “underscored the fragility of the Western side,” Dr Renouf said.
Parts of the American press labelled Mr Trump’s actions at the summit “a betrayal of the country” as he publicly sided with Mr Putin over his own intelligence community. In front of the world, he defended a hostile foreign country while denigrating his own.
During the trip he warned NATO allies that the United States “might go it alone” if they didn’t increase defence spending immediately and even referred to the European Union as a “foe”.
These often off-script remarks are no doubt music to Mr Putin’s ears — a leader who has shown expansionist tendencies.
In 2014, Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine and since then Mr Putin has placed an increased emphasis on Russia’s “right” and “obligation” to protect ethnic Russians and Russian speakers beyond its borders.
Professor Ian Bond, director of Foreign Policy at the Centre for European Reform, agrees with the notion that Mr Trump’s fickleness on foreign policy emboldens an expansionist Russia.
“Trump is creating uncertainty about whether the US can be relied upon to defend its allies in a crisis,” he told ABC radio on Friday.
“And by creating that doubt that may encourage the Russians to think that some of the states that used to be in its sphere of influence can be dragged back by force or subterfuge.”
WAR GAMES AND WEASEL WORDS
The US currently has about 60,000 troops in Europe, many of which are stationed in Germany but recent reports suggest that the Pentagon is reviewing the number of troops on the continent.
“The US government is definitely thinking whether it should reduce its presence in Europe, and this is likely driven by the fact that President Trump is trying to reduce financial commitments in places where he deems them not relevant,” Dr Renouf said.
For European leaders, the inconsistent rhetoric and bizarre backflips from President Trump have forced them to ratchet up their defence spending, which is exactly what the US leader wants.
“The unpredictability of President Trump and his lack of clear foreign policy strategy worries the allies further and deepens the sense of urgency that they have to do something and not count on the US should anything happen,” Dr Renouf said.
However, what Mr Trump says and what the US does are very different things. In May, the US sent more troops and military to strategic locations in eastern Europe and the Baltics under the banner of Operation Atlantic Resolve. Military officials said the deployment was a large-scale exercise meant to stress logistics skills that would be needed in case of a war on the continent.
Last month, NATO held the Trojan Footprint 18 joint military exercise in Poland and the Baltics, which was one of its biggest-ever war games in the region.
More here:
https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/military/another-war-in-europe-could-happen-the-104-kilometres-that-could-plunge-continent-into-war/news-story/2c220048314a8f349e7a3291082b6171
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